14 predictions for how people learn, earn, and own in 2024
Avalanches are coming
Hi friends,
Nice to see you here in 2024.
Usually, I refrain from annual predictions as the pace of the calendar year is arbitrary for gaining conviction, but I thought it’d be fun this year.
The list is not MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) in consulting parlay. Not every category may be venture-investable. Many businesses we see in these categories should prioritize capital efficiency.
There are also more speculative trends that I excluded from the list. These are under the radar and early. Take this as a couple of the big ones that are obviously the future this year.
Next week, I’ll do another post covering the underlying technology trends and our 2024 venture capital and startup markets outlook.
As always, comments, thoughts, and intelligent disagreement are encouraged.
Katelyn
Learn
At the foundation of every successful life is a learning journey. Learning compounds and creates more demand for itself. Avalanche invests in technology that delivers learning outcomes at scale at every life stage and in many contexts.
1. Efficacious education continues to grow.
Gaming + immersive reality + effective pedagogy had a breakout year in 2023. 2024 will see technological advances embedded into product teams, and distribution will see a step change improvement. VR headset prices are decreasing, and Apple will launch the Vision Pro headset in early 2024. Generative AI makes content production cheaper, more elaborate, and more personalized. Prof Jim estimates they help educators create content 15 times faster.
The lynchpin of efficacious education is the quality of pedagogy designed into products to produce learning outcomes. Companies like Prisms of Reality that have cracked the code and provided third-party validated efficacy studies will flourish and scale.
2. The Education Freedom movement in K12 accelerates.
Eight states in 2023 went universal with their school choice programs, representing 1 in 5 students nationwide. Many others, including Idaho and Arizona, have active ESA programs and amended policies so that parents can choose options to attend the best school based on needs, not zoning. Education flexibility is now a policy priority in 2024 for Texas, New Hampshire, Louisana, and Tennessee governors, and polling shows solid bipartisan support from voters. Implementing these programs is critical. Odyssey Education has built a best-in-class complete platform to make program administration a breeze for everyone.
3. Digital enrollment goes global.
Education choice and diversity are not just a US phenomenon. Education systems worldwide have also increased choice and transparency; these options are now coming online for the first time. Chile is the first country to have country-wide public & private digital enrollment. The platform ‘Get on the List’ launched this week and is powered by TetherEd. The market will globalize as courses and programs become more hybrid and online.
4. The market for supplemental education, homeschooling, and alternative education deepens.
As collective imagination on school flexibility has increased, and policy changes put dollars directly in the hands of parents, a wave of supply-side providers is maturing to meet the demand. We’ve seen growth in micro-schools, lower-cost privates, and homeschooling for online, in-person, and hybrid implementation. Increasingly, a new class of professionals can implement the blueprint for an online school model with an in-person social component. All sorts of alternative education models are flourishing.
5. AI-tutors disappoint for learning, but AI-driven software improves the efficiency and productivity of the sector.
Mike Goldstein wrote an evidence-based take on tutoring that concludes that AI tutors will work for motivated students (who are in the slim minority) and broadly not impact the unmotivated students (who are the vast majority. That’s roughly right.
AI chatbots thus far resemble homework helpers and are a faster way to get answers than pedagogical learning tools. This is great for curious, ambitious students and may aid their progress. But, these are the minority of students. Keeping students engaged and motivated is a more challenging and fundamental task for most teachers.
6. With declining enrollment, higher education competes on cost and quality - the original avalanche thesis accelerates.
Post-secondary students are wisening up to the value for money of various degree programs and choosing institutions and career tracks that have a strong signal and track record of vocational success. Many students have chosen to forgo traditional higher education altogether, leading to 1 million fewer young men in college today and 200,000 fewer young women compared to 2011. GenZ is likelier to want to ‘earn and learn’ even if it takes longer and values programs tied in with employers.
For example, Bootcamp-like programs focused on skills and advertising lower prices will continue to be in demand as standalone services and/or bolt-ons with university branding. Upright Education is an excellent example of a course platform that partners with 30+ community colleges to offer courses on in-demand career skills.
Original Avalanche Is Coming: Higher Education and the Revolution Ahead paper.
7. New measures of merit
Traditional ways of assessing merit for scholarships, admission to education programs, and entry-level workplaces are being reinvented. Technology that takes in a wide range of data and can robustly prove competence or potential can replace arduous exams, lengthy interviews, and fraught human decision-making. We expect to see things like college admissions and job application processes being disrupted and revolutionized as AI prediction machines are fine-tuned.
Earn
The world of work and career is fundamentally changing to be more platform-driven, flexible, and independent. Everyone is an entrepreneur, or they must learn to think like one. We invest in platforms that drive a shift to greater efficiency and empowerment and increase skills in every vertical.
8. Technology hiring is open but measured.
Technology companies and startups had layoffs and downsizing in 2023 after a manic 2021 and 2022. In 2024, employers will return to hiring but will be selective and strategic. According to the BLS, web developers and digital designers are projected to see a 16% job growth from 2022 to 2032, significantly outpacing the average for all occupations. Salaries and compensation packages, outside of highly in-demand technical or experienced hires, will be lower than in boom years. However, the best way for employees to secure a compensation raise is to secure a competing offer or to move companies. Platforms like Offered make finding a new job more manageable.
9. Productized services replace freelancer marketplaces.
It’s time for the gig economy to mature. The revenue growth of last decade's freelancer marketplaces (Fiverr and Upwork) has slowed. Enterprises and SMBs looking to engage freelancers want to buy results and quality. Platforms and companies that can productize the link between freelancers and businesses who want outcomes will thrive.
10. Strong healthcare and hospitality labor demand will continue with limited supply.
Both categories require soft skills and on-the-job training rather than extensive classroom time on theory and reading. Companies that effectively recruit, upskill, onboard, retain, and performance manage this labor pool will do well. Technology platforms that can make these jobs more productive by automating routine tasks are poised for success.
11. Creator-led businesses succeed and mature.
More than 50 million people worldwide consider themselves creators. Last year, significant creators launched consumer products, like Mr.Beast with Feastables. Creators and influences are increasingly sophisticated with their courses, communities, and merch. Duolingo, the breakout success of consumer EdTech, has shown the power of a strong social media-first brand. I expect an acceleration of this trend and that dedicated tech products and services will help the large creator long tail monetize their communities and curation.
Own
The path to prosperity includes increased access to assets and ownership. In an AI-driven era, owning data and rights to intellectual property is a critical element of wealth. The effectiveness of the state where you reside is crucial to wealth building. We invest in companies that increase ownership of assets, power small and medium-sized businesses, and efficiently deliver public services more effectively.
12. Citizens vote with their feet.
2023 was a year of US internal migration from high-cost, high-tax states to lower-cost, more business-friendly jurisdictions. We expect this to continue globally. Cities, states, and countries that adopt outcome-oriented policies that make work and life easier for their citizens to thrive. International desire to move countries is also increasing.
13. Digital nomadism is here to stay.
While 2023 saw many workplaces enact back-to-the-office policies, digital nomadism, a concept that accelerated during covid, is significant and not going away. One of the macro drivers is the geo-arbitrage combination of low-cost living with higher expat income. Last year, 58 countries created special digital nomad visas to lure this population.
Digital nomads have unique consumer preferences, leading to the creation of bespoke products that cater to their demands. Boundless Life is an international community with a built-in schooling compound for digital nomads with kids.
14. Owning digital assets and platform control gains importance.
In an AI-driven economy, owning data and rights to your intellectual property will be a critical element of wealth. Blockchains, cryptocurrencies, and programable money are technological solutions to drive decentralized ownership.
As crypto prices have increased in the last three months, new life has come back into the digital asset ecosystem, and it looks like a Bitcoin ETF may be approved soon. Younger generations believe crypto is here to stay as an asset and have ~15% of their portfolio in digital assets. Platforms like Bluesky that allow users more ownership and control of their experience will accelerate. The web3 excitement from 2021 will likely make a re-emergence in 2024 as a more serious and practical force. We stand by most of our predictions from 18 months ago (Web3: It’s all still happening).
Excellent as always Katelyn.
I also wondering if this year "financial literacy+financial wellbeing" gets carved out as a separate skillset and starts gaining traction. It might be important to keep it away from the debt industry.